金融发展对经济增长影响的实证分析

本文将金融发展作为一个独立解释变量引入,构造经济增长的面板数据模型,运用面板数据以1994年为分界点分两阶段实证分析了全国及东、中、西部地区1985~2003年金融发展对经济增长的影响,以及东、中、西部地区影响的差异性,模型较好地拟合了数据。实证分析表明,各地区之间金融发展的不平衡性可以部分解释其经济增长的差异性。     

新疆的生态旅游及其可持续发展研究

中国新疆旅游资源丰富多彩且具特色，但由于特殊的地理位置和当地经济条件，这里的旅游业还不发达，随着西部大开发脚步的加快，新疆的生态环境必将受到冲击和影响，如何保障生态环境免遭破坏，又能在大力开放旅游资源的前提下寻求可持续发展，对上问题，本文在探讨生态旅游的现状利弊基础上，结合西部大开发将面临的平等一系列生态问题及生态旅游资源的可持续利用问题进行了讨论。     

证据理论在新产品开发方案可行性评估中的应用

研究证据理论在新产品开发方案可行性评估中的应用。证据理论是一种不确定性的推理方法，能较好地反映可行性评估中客观证据和专家意见对评估结果的影响。通过对宽带可视电话开发方案可行性评估过程的分析表明，证据理论为企业新产品开发方案的可行性评估提供了客观的、操作性好的的模型和方法。     

多学科跨专业物理实验教学研究

本文以跨专业物理实验的教学实践为例,阐述了开设具有特色的适用多专业的实验内容,是实现素质教育的途径之一。     

COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS APPLIED TO WILDERNESS PRESERVATION—OPTION VALUE UNCERTAINTY AND DITONICITY

It has been recognized for some time that when cost-benefit analysis is applied to irreversible environmental decisions, such as that of developing or preserving wilderness land, there can be an option value associated with the preservation decision, which arises when there is future uncertainty with respect to the benefits of development or preservation. In this paper the provenance of option value is examined and it is shown that an important cause is a special kind of uncertainty, viz. the possibility of reversals in direction of the relative valuations of wilderness land and developed land, a property we refer to as ditonicity. It is shown that the more ditonic the relative valuation process the greater the deviance between the certainty-equivalence development policy and the stochastically optimal one, and thus by implication the greater the option value. In the two cases with zero ditonicity, when relative wilderness valuations always increase or always decrease (even though in a stochastic fashion), there is zero option value. The model used assumes that service flows from wilderness and developed land are size-dependent, with future relative values known only in terms of a stochastic process, which can take jumps up or down of the same proportional size, at random times. Development can be partial or total and can occur in impulses at any time over an infinite time horizon.     

A review of Bayesian dynamic forecasting models: Applications in marketing

We briefly review the main developments of Bayesian dynamic models. The emphasis is on marketing applications. Typical examples in this area are discussed. The concepts of monitoring and intervention are carefully explained with illustrative examples and open source computational routines. We avoid algebraic developments and instead use graphical examples to illustrate theoretical aspects. Two real-world problems using Bayesian dynamic models are discussed. Finally, we describe recent developments and alternative proposals to formally address the dependence when dealing with the modeling of multiple time series.     

地质环境与城市发展研究综述

该文概述了城市地质环境与城市发展国内外研究现状,指出了我国城市工程地质工作存在的问题,论证了地质环境与城市发展中主要问题的解决途径,提出了地质环境与城市发展研究与工作的一些建议。论文还介绍了与地质环境与城市发展密切相关的我国工程地质专业设置现状与发展趋势。     

Studying the Effect of the Spatial Frequency and Amplitude of Corrugation on the Stress–Strain State of Cylindrical Shells

An approach developed earlier to solve two-dimensional static problems for noncircular cylindrical shells is used to analyze the effect of the spatial frequency and amplitude of corrugation on the stress–strain state of shells. The results of the analysis are presented in the form of plots and tables     

LY12铝疲劳裂纹在冲击载荷下的演化研究

对LY12铝合金在低周疲劳条件下的裂纹情况和随后进行的动态拉伸条件下裂纹的发展给予了观察和统计分析，发现裂纹的累积数密度分布在损伤演化过程中保持指数形式，用NAG模型对实验结果进行分析，得出该材料裂纹演化发展方程的各种参数。